Risk becomes tradable.
Weather contracts create venues for risk transfer and price discovery across temperature and climate outcomes.
Weather & climate markets
Weather risk,
priced.
Quantitative research at the intersection of
atmospheric science and financial markets.
Live
Discover HEAT
RESEARCH. TRADING. RISK.
Our mandate
Weather derivatives
Our discipline
Quantitative research
Our focus
Settlement precision
Our principle
Risk-aware execution
01 / The firm
A specialist perspectiveA physical world.
A financial market.
Weather has always moved cash flows. We study the instruments that put a price on it.
HEAT Trading is a proprietary research and trading initiative focused on weather derivatives and climate risk markets. We develop quantitative models and execution systems for contracts linked to temperature, precipitation, and climate outcomes.
The details determine value.
Station identity, observation paths, official records, and settlement rules are central to how we understand each contract.
Every position has a limit.
Models, data quality, execution cost, and position limits must agree before capital is deployed.
02 / Our approach
From observation to executionWe model the
contract as it
settles.
Forecasts describe the weather.
Markets settle on rulebooks.
Our research focuses on the gap between the two, combining atmospheric data, settlement mechanics, market microstructure, and disciplined risk management.
The operating principle
Uncertainty is a reason to reduce exposure.
Sometimes, the right trade is no trade.
Observe
Instrument-level data.
Surface observations, official reports, historical station behavior, and the settlement conventions of each event.
Model
Price the distribution.
Probabilistic models for thresholds, tails, intraday paths, local regimes, and forecast bias.
Execute
Respect the market.
Account for liquidity, spreads, queue position, venue state, transaction costs, and portfolio exposure.
Control
Preserve capital.
When data, model, venue, or exposure is uncertain, our discipline includes the decision not to trade.
03 / Atmosphere
Live surface observationsThe atmosphere.
Right now.
Twenty settlement stations, coast to coast. Each line is the last twenty-four hours; each dot is the latest reading.
Surface observations from the stations HEAT follows, aggregated in 15-minute buckets. Shown for information only. These are not official climate reports and not contract settlement values.
04 / Markets
A focused mandateThe atmosphere.
In precise terms.
We study listed and emerging instruments where weather outcomes can be priced, hedged, and traded.
Temperature
Daily & intraday outcomes
Highs, lows, thresholds, records, and station-specific temperature paths.
Precipitation
Event & accumulation risk
Rain, snow, storms, and cumulative outcomes tied to official measurement.
Climate duration
Persistent regimes
Heat waves, cold snaps, degree days, seasonal anomalies, and duration-based exposures.
05 / Start a conversation
A considered view
of what comes next.
For investors, venues, data providers, hedgers, and strategic partners building the weather-risk market.