Weather & climate markets

Weather risk,
priced.

Quantitative research at the intersection of
atmospheric science and financial markets.

Live
RESEARCH. TRADING. RISK.
Discover HEAT
Our mandate

Weather derivatives

Our discipline

Quantitative research

Our focus

Settlement precision

Our principle

Risk-aware execution

01 / The firm

A specialist perspective

A physical world.
A financial market.

Weather has always moved cash flows. We study the instruments that put a price on it.

HEAT Trading is a proprietary research and trading initiative focused on weather derivatives and climate risk markets. We develop quantitative models and execution systems for contracts linked to temperature, precipitation, and climate outcomes.

MARKET FORMATION

Risk becomes tradable.

Weather contracts create venues for risk transfer and price discovery across temperature and climate outcomes.

SPECIALIZATION

The details determine value.

Station identity, observation paths, official records, and settlement rules are central to how we understand each contract.

DISCIPLINE

Every position has a limit.

Models, data quality, execution cost, and position limits must agree before capital is deployed.

02 / Our approach

From observation to execution

We model the
contract as it
settles.

Forecasts describe the weather.
Markets settle on rulebooks.

Our research focuses on the gap between the two, combining atmospheric data, settlement mechanics, market microstructure, and disciplined risk management.

The operating principle

Uncertainty is a reason to reduce exposure.
Sometimes, the right trade is no trade.

01
Observe

Instrument-level data.

Surface observations, official reports, historical station behavior, and the settlement conventions of each event.

OBSERVATIONSOFFICIAL RECORDS
02
Model

Price the distribution.

Probabilistic models for thresholds, tails, intraday paths, local regimes, and forecast bias.

THRESHOLDSTAIL RISK
03
Execute

Respect the market.

Account for liquidity, spreads, queue position, venue state, transaction costs, and portfolio exposure.

MICROSTRUCTUREEXECUTION COST
04
Control

Preserve capital.

When data, model, venue, or exposure is uncertain, our discipline includes the decision not to trade.

POSITION LIMITSEXPOSURE

03 / Atmosphere

Live surface observations

The atmosphere.
Right now.

Twenty settlement stations, coast to coast. Each line is the last twenty-four hours; each dot is the latest reading.

Coast to coast, west to east 24-hour rangeLatest reading

Surface observations from the stations HEAT follows, aggregated in 15-minute buckets. Shown for information only. These are not official climate reports and not contract settlement values.

04 / Markets

A focused mandate

The atmosphere.
In precise terms.

We study listed and emerging instruments where weather outcomes can be priced, hedged, and traded.

01

Temperature

Daily & intraday outcomes

Highs, lows, thresholds, records, and station-specific temperature paths.

POINT & PATH
02

Precipitation

Event & accumulation risk

Rain, snow, storms, and cumulative outcomes tied to official measurement.

EVENT & VOLUME
03

Climate duration

Persistent regimes

Heat waves, cold snaps, degree days, seasonal anomalies, and duration-based exposures.

TIME & REGIME

05 / Start a conversation

A considered view
of what comes next.

For investors, venues, data providers, hedgers, and strategic partners building the weather-risk market.